Why do many prospective analyses of CO2 emissions fail? An illustrative example from China
نویسندگان
چکیده
The main contribution of this paper is a demonstration the importance taking into account evolution generation value added and productivity to avoid biased prospective analysis Chinese energy-related CO2 emissions. To that end, delivers Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index decomposition carbon emissions intensity from 1995 2014 for balanced panel disaggregated economic sectors. shows similar assumptions deliver different outcomes when analyses are based on energy intensity, or alternatively its factorial decomposition, in order take changes (e.g., productivity). Following hypothesis, suggests China will be unable accomplish pledged commitments under Paris Agreement climate change, despite strong reductions intensity. Analyses usual (standard) approach, by using measures instead reach opposite conclusion. lesson alternative designs (using drivers variables) leads lines reasoning conclusions. Therefore, researchers, consultants policy makers underestimate if they continue base their indicators.
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ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: Energy
سال: 2022
ISSN: ['1873-6785', '0360-5442']
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2021.123064